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One-third of greenhouse gasses generated from the United States comes from transportation and the number of cars on the road in the United States will increase by 50% by the year 2030.  These two trends will fight against the upstream mandate on greenhouse gas emissions in the proposed climate change legislation before Congress.

Both the Waxman-Markey and the Kerry-Boxer bills specify a timeline for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from covered sources, which include domestic petroleum producers and importers.  The Waxman-Markey mandates greenhouse gas emissions reduction of 28-31% over 2005 levels and the Kerry-Boxer bill mandates a 42% reduction.  If the reduction in the final legislation is 30-40%, and our consumption of cars continues to increase, efficient electric vehicles will be more important than ever to fight off higher gas prices.  The cap-and-trade nature of the legislation will require upstream petroleum producers to buy pollution allowances and offsets which will likely mean higher gas prices.

In April, I decided to map out all of the electric conversion garages in the US I could find on the web to get a feel for how prevalent they are around the US. I’d like to convert my own internal combustion engine car to electric but unfortunately, I live in the northeast and as you can see from the map, there’s not much here as far as conversion garages go.

The map shows professional conversion garages, this doesn’t include amateur or hobbyist garages, which do exist in my area. The map also caused a bit of confusion when I circulated it because it only focuses on where the conversions can be performed and does not include the manufacturers of the parts to perform the conversion.

I decided to make a second map, which shows the conversion parts makers. The first map had a Canadian garage in it and the components map has some Canadian suppliers as well. The goal of the map is to show where in the US it would require the least amount of shipping to receive the components to perform the conversion. Ideally, the conversion process to be as green as possible too.

The components map is still a work in progress. It consists mainly of battery manufacturers with one electric motor manufacturer. I’m sure there are more — if you know of some, please email me. This components map consists only of component manufacturers and does not include distributors.

A McKinsey report (thanks Titos) predicts that electric vehicles will only capture a small percentage of total vehicle sales by 2030. The report looks at a number of development scenarios the automotive OEMs as a whole would adopt and assesses the chances for electric vehicles in each one. Under the scenario where the automotive sector would pursue a “balanced mix of technological solutions reaching the market, including optimized ICEs, hybrids and electric vehicles,” the market penetration for electric vehicles is only 3%. Under a more aggressive vehicle electrification scenario, the market penetration only improves to 8%, according to McKinsey.

I forgot where I found the report on the web, so I’m storing another copy here.

According to Calculated Risk, a blog focusing on finance and economics, the vehicle fleet turnover is estimated at 10-15 years prior to 2009.  This year is completely different with the turnover rate expected to be 27 years, as shown in this great graphic.  With major automotive OEMs not likely to release an electric vehicle before late 2010, widespread electric vehicle adoption is not likely to be a reality any time soon, even if you assume pre-2009 numbers.  

This void can be filled by programs to convert internal combustion engine (ICE) cars to electric engines.  If you also consider the fact that most electric vehicles (Tata may be an exception) are likely to also be expensive, the near-term impact of the electric vehicle is further reduced.  I’m not arguing against electric vehicles from major OEM’s, in fact, I’m all for it.  But if we’re counting on electric vehicles for energy independence, increased smart grid capacity, and generally helping the environment, we still have a time gap to fill, even if electric vehicles roll off of assembly lines in the Fall of 2010.

It looks like in 2010, electric vehicles will start trickling into the marketplace.  Nissan and Ford have announced plans to be ready to sell electric vehicles then.  In 2011, Tesla will begin selling its all electric sedan.  And in 2012, Toyota will bring it’s electric vehicle, FT-EV to market.

Not included in this list are the Chevy Volt and Chrysler ENVI, which are not true electric vehicles.  They both have a gasoline engine in them for extended range, and  are really plug-in hybrids — even though they are being advertised as electric.

The tax incentives for low-emissions vehicles are nice, but the financial incentive we really need to speed the adoption of electric vehicles is a cap and trade on the registration of liquid fuel only vehicles.  This, of course, assumes that there is a reasonable amount of recharging infrastructure in place and a few different commercial alternatives.  However, once these things are in place, the electric vehicle tax credit may not be incentive enough for people to make the switch.

That is where a cap and trade plan could help, like the one being proposed for CO2 emissions for manufacturing plants.  The government could mandate that each state cap the number of vehicle registrations allowed for cars that have:

1. Gasoline engine only
2. Hybrid engine
3. Plug-in hybrid
4. All-electric engine

It would be a graduated scale with the number of permits decreasing every year for the gas-powered end of the spectrum, and getting more expensive down at that end of the spectrum, as well.  This would make sure that the American consumer doesn’t greet the establishment of an electric vehicle charging grid with a collective yawn.

eCars-Now! has published their conversion kit for the eCorolla to convert a Toyota Corolla with an internal combustion engine to an electric vehicle.  This includes which parts to order, detailed drawing of the engine compartment, as well as the download location for engine control unit (ECU) code.

While the DOE is trying to hand out $25 billion by April, hopefully, they’ll find a way to fund a program in the US like eCars-Now!  eCars-Now! is a collection of electric vehicle enthusiasts in Finland focused on making electric vehicles a reality in the near future.   Taking a page from the book of fellow Finn, Linus Torvalds, the eCars-Now! movement aims to provide an open-source electric vehicle conversion platform, much the same way Mr. Torvalds provided the software community with the kernel for the Linux operating system.

The Toyota Corolla is the test vehicle of choice for the eCars-Now! conversion process.  Currently, they are working on removing the liquid-fuel engines from existing Corollas and replacing them with electric engines.   They are also doing it in a way that others can learn from and contribute to the process.  This open source effort means that the technology used to bring the electric conversion process to life will be shared with any interested user.  From the battery management system to the software that runs on the cars control unit, eCars-Now! is investigating what it takes to make an electric vehicle reality and keeping that knowledge in the public domain.  By focusing on converting existing cars, eCars-Now! also gets a gas-guzzling car off the road for every electric vehicle they bring to life, which minimizes the environmental impact of deploying electric vehicles.

There is such a need for this technology and collaborative effort in the US.  In much the same way the Linux kernel helped advance the state of the art of computer operating systems while at the same time making operating systems more accessible, eCars-Now! is engaged in advancing electric vehicle conversion technology and making it more accessible.  To find out how you can help foster a program like eCars-Now! in the US, please contact me, or join the eCars-Now! google group.

I found a thorough and fascinating discussion by Jim Coate on the electric tractor.  I thought the electric tractor might not be feasible because of horsepower, but from Jim’s article — from 2003 — apparently that’s not the case:

The larger electric machines, with 10-15 horsepower motors can rival the power of a small cultivating tractor and be used for a variety of agricultural purposes. They are generally limited more by traction and ground clearance than by strength (www.econogics.com/ev/evtools.htm).

Electric tractors don’t seem to be getting much attention lately — this is probably due to their relatively small customer base when compared to electric vehicles for general consumers.  However, electric tractors have the potential to add a lot of value for the farmers.  In a commodity market, there are few, if any ways of differentiating your product.  One way for farmers to command a small premium for their crops could be to tout their farming methods as carbon-neutral, if located close enough to their customer base.  This may be a big incentive for farmers to go electric for farm equipment and put themselves toward the top of the organic food market.

The new NYT environment and energy page has an article on how the Department of Energy is having a hard time handing out $25 billion for electric vehicles.  It sounds like the new DOE is still getting on its feet and trying to sort through the loan applications cautiously.  GM and Chrysler have applied and even though the money likely won’t go out until April or May, hopefully the Obama administration will make them go through this program to get any additional funding.  I think that giving them money outside of this program would only be put towards prolonging an existing business model that has already failed.