A McKinsey report (thanks Titos) predicts that electric vehicles will only capture a small percentage of total vehicle sales by 2030. The report looks at a number of development scenarios the automotive OEMs as a whole would adopt and assesses the chances for electric vehicles in each one. Under the scenario where the automotive sector would pursue a “balanced mix of technological solutions reaching the market, including optimized ICEs, hybrids and electric vehicles,” the market penetration for electric vehicles is only 3%. Under a more aggressive vehicle electrification scenario, the market penetration only improves to 8%, according to McKinsey.
I forgot where I found the report on the web, so I’m storing another copy here.
